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Monday, July 25, 2005

ELECTION BOOK NOW OPEN

-------------UPDATE: Thu 28 July---------------
New Centrebet odds as at 11am
Clark@$1.80, Brash@$1.90, Peters@$201.00, Hide@$501.00
-------------UPDATE: Wed 27 July---------------
New Centrebet odds as at 3pm
Brash@$1.83, Clark@$1.83, Peters@$201.00, Hide@$501.00
-------------UPDATE: Tues 26 July---------------
New Centrebet odds as at 11am
Brash@$1.80, Clark@$1.90, Peters@$101.00
-------------UPDATE---------------
New Centrebet odds as at midnight:
NATIONAL@1.75, LABOUR@1.90, NEW ZEALAND FIRST@151.00
Very interesting! There must have been some action for them to move it like that. Probably a bit of money going on National. But at this point I'm sticking with my odds as I have given a little bit of credit for incumbency despite recent polls.
-------------UPDATE---------------
Australian bookies, Centrebet have just released their odds on who will be PM:
LABOUR@1.83, NATIONAL@1.83, NEW ZEALAND FIRST@151.00
-----------------------------------
My odds are as follows:

----2005 New Zealand General Election series----

Option 2: Nat-Lab head-to-head largest party vote.
$01.85 Labour
$01.90 National

Punters are invited to make their selections in the comments section. I will fix the odds shortly and display your name on the board next to your selection.
-----------------------------------
Option 3: Labour party vote.
Odds...Partyvote %...2002 election/M&F poll&date...Punters
$00.00 50%+
$00.00 45-49.99%
$00.00 40-44.99% 2002
$00.00 35-39.99% poll22/07 TSelwyn26/07
$00.00 30-34.99%
$00.00 25-29.99%
$00.00 20-24.99%
$00.00 00-19.99%
Option 4: National party vote.
$00.00 50%+
$00.00 45-49.99%
$00.00 40-44.99% poll22/07
$00.00 35-39.99% TSelwyn26/07
$00.00 30-34.99%
$00.00 25-29.99%
$00.00 20-24.99% 2002 result
$00.00 00-19.99%
Option 5: NZ First party vote.
$00.00 16%+
$00.00 15-15.99%
$00.00 14-14.99%
$00.00 13-13.99%
$00.00 12-12.99% TSelwyn26/07
$00.00 11-11.99%
$00.00 10-10.99% 2002 result
$00.00 09-09.99% poll22/07
$00.00 08-08.99%
$00.00 07-07.99%
$00.00 06-06.99%
$00.00 05-05.99%
$00.00 00-04.99%
Option 6: Greens party vote.
$00.00 10%+
$00.00 09-09.99%
$00.00 08-08.99%
$00.00 07-07.99% 2002 resultTSelwyn26/07
$00.00 06-06.99% poll22/07
$00.00 05-05.99%
$00.00 04-04.99%
$00.00 03-03.99%
$00.00 02-02.99%
$00.00 01-01.99%
$00.00 00-00.99%
Option 7: Maori party vote.
$00.00 10%+
$00.00 09-09.99%
$00.00 08-08.99%
$00.00 07-07.99%
$00.00 06-06.99%
$00.00 05-05.99%
$00.00 04-04.99%
$00.00 03-03.99% TSelwyn26/07
$00.00 02-02.99%
$00.00 01-01.99% poll22/07
$00.00 00-00.99%
Option 8: United Future party vote.
$00.00 10%+
$00.00 09-09.99%
$00.00 08-08.99%
$00.00 07-07.99%
$00.00 06-06.99% 2002 result
$00.00 05-05.99%
$00.00 04-04.99%
$00.00 03-03.99%
$00.00 02-02.99% TSelwyn26/07
$00.00 01-01.99% poll22/07
$00.00 00-00.99%
Option 9: Act party vote.
$00.00 10%+
$00.00 09-09.99%
$00.00 08-08.99%
$00.00 07-07.99% 2002 result
$00.00 06-06.99%
$00.00 05-05.99%
$00.00 04-04.99%
$00.00 03-03.99% TSelwyn26/07
$00.00 02-02.99%
$00.00 01-01.99% poll22/07
$00.00 00-00.99%
Option 10: Progressives party vote.
$00.00 05%+
$00.00 04-04.99%
$00.00 03-03.99%
$00.00 02-02.99%
$00.00 01-01.99% 2002 result
$00.00 00-00.99% poll22/07 TSelwyn26/07
Option 11: All others party vote.
$00.00 10%+
$00.00 09-09.99%
$00.00 08-08.99%
$00.00 07-07.99%
$00.00 06-06.99%
$00.00 05-05.99%
$00.00 04-04.99% 2002 result
$00.00 03-03.99% TSelwyn26/07
$00.00 02-02.99%
$00.00 01-01.99%
$00.00 00-00.99% poll22/07
--------------------------------------
Bet closes: 16/09/2005 Results: are for election night % of total vote (excluding informals). TAB disclaimer: this is simulated only.

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